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世界银行报告:全球经济衰退在即? (R0318)

营销老司机 | 25年营销者分享营销的点点滴滴 2022/09/21 18:38
世界银行 非券商

报告称,今年各国央行纷纷加息,幅度为50年来未曾有过的,而且这种趋势很可能会持续到明年。然而,目前预期的加息轨迹和其他政策行动可能不足以将全球通胀降至新冠疫情前的水平。投资者预计,各国央行将在 2023 年将全球货币政策利率提高至近4%,比 2021 年的平均水平高出2个百分点以上。

研究发现,除非供应中断改善和劳动力市场压力缓解,否则加息可能导致全球核心通胀(不包括能源)在 2023 年达到5%左右,几乎是疫情前五年平均水平的两倍。根据该报告的模型,如果要将全球通胀率降至目标水平,央行可能需要将利率再提高2个百分点。但如果金融市场同时受到压力,2023年全球GDP增长将放缓至0.5%——人均收缩0.4%,这个数字符合全球衰退的技术定义。

世界银行集团行长戴维·马尔帕斯表示:“全球经济增速正在急剧下滑,并且随着越来越多的国家陷入衰退,还可能会进一步放缓。我对这些趋势将继续下去深感担忧。这将对新兴市场和发展中经济体的人民造成长期的灾难性后果。为实现低通胀、稳定货币和快速增长的目标,政策制定者可以将政策重点从减少消费转向提振生产。应该把重点放在增加投资、提高生产力和优化资本配置上,这三者对于增长和减贫都至关重要。”

该报告强调了当今各国央行在对抗通胀方面面临的异常严峻的形势。全球衰退的几个历史指标已经发出警告。全球经济目前正处于自1970年经济衰退后复苏以来最严重的衰退中。全球消费者信心的下降幅度远远超过了全球经济衰退之前的下降幅度。世界三大经济体——美国、中国和欧元区——一直在急剧放缓。在这种情况下,即使是未来一年的轻微打击也可能使全球经济陷入衰退。

基于对过去全球衰退的深入洞察,该报告分析了近期经济活动的演变,并预测了 2022-24年的可能情景。当前面临的放缓通常需要反周期政策来支持经济活动。然而,通胀威胁和有限的财政空间促使许多国家的决策者在全球经济急剧放缓之际撤回了政策支持。

1970年代的经验、应对1975年全球衰退的政策、随后的滞胀期以及1982年的全球衰退,都说明了在增长疲软的情况下让通胀长期居高不下的风险。1982年的全球经济衰退恰逢发展中经济体继2020年之后的过去50年中第二低的增长率。经济衰退引发了40多次债务危机,并使许多发展中经济体在未来十年内停滞不前。

“最近收紧货币和财政政策的举措可能有助于降低通货膨胀,”世界银行负责公平增长、金融和制度的代理副行长阿伊汗·高斯说,“然而,鉴于各国动作高度同步,可能在收紧金融条件和加剧全球增长下滑方面产生叠加效应。新兴市场和发展中经济体的政策制定者需要为全球同步收紧政策带来的潜在溢出做好准备。”

报告称,各国央行应继续控制通胀,并能够在不引发全球衰退的情况下实现其目标。但这需要政策制定者在各个方面采取一致行动:

中央银行必须在保持独立性的同时清楚地传达政策决定。这样做将有助于控制通胀预期并降低所需的紧缩水平。发达经济体的中央银行应考虑货币紧缩的跨境溢出效应。新兴市场和发展中经济体央行要加强宏观审慎监管,建立外汇储备。

财政部门需要仔细规划财政支持措施的退出,以确保与货币政策目标保持一致。明年收紧财政政策的国家数量预计将达到1990年代初以来的最高水平。这可能会放大货币政策对增长的影响。政策制定者还应制定可信可靠的中期财政计划,为弱势家庭提供有针对性的救济。

其他经济部门的政策制定者需要加入对抗通胀的行列,尤其是采取强有力的措施来提升全球供应。

这些包括:

缓解劳动力市场约束。政策措施要有利于提高劳动力参与率,减轻物价压力。劳动力市场政策需要能够促进下岗工人的再就业。

增加全球商品供应。全球协调与合作可以大大增加粮食和能源供应。对于能源商品,政策制定者应促进加快向低碳能源转型,并采取措施减少能源消耗。

加强全球贸易网络。政策制定者应合作缓解全球供应瓶颈;支持基于规则的国际经济秩序,以应对可能进一步破坏贸易网络的保护主义和碎片化威胁。


Central banks have raised interest rates this year at levels not seen in 50 years, and the trend is likely to continue into next year, the report said. However, the currently expected trajectory of rate hikes and other policy actions may not be enough to bring global inflation down to pre-coronavirus levels. Investors expect central banks to raise global monetary policy rates to nearly 4 percent in 2023, more than 2 percentage points above the 2021 average.

Unless supply disruptions improve and labor market pressures ease, rate hikes could lead to global core inflation, excluding energy, reaching around 5% in 2023, nearly double the pre-pandemic five-year average, the study found. According to the report's modelling, the central bank may need to raise interest rates by another 2 percentage points if global inflation is to be brought down to target. But if financial markets are stressed at the same time, global GDP growth will slow to 0.5% in 2023 - a per capita contraction of 0.4%, a figure that fits the technical definition of a global recession.

David Malpass, President of the World Bank Group, said: “Global growth is declining sharply and is likely to slow further as more and more countries fall into recession. I feel deeply that these trends will continue. concerns. This will have long-term disastrous consequences for the people of emerging market and developing economies. To achieve the goals of low inflation, stable currencies, and rapid growth, policymakers can shift policy focus from reducing consumption to boosting production. Should be Focus on increasing investment, improving productivity and optimizing capital allocation, all three of which are critical for growth and poverty reduction."

The report underscores the unusually dire situation facing central banks today when it comes to fighting inflation. Several historical indicators of a global recession are already warning. The global economy is currently in its worst recession since its post-recession recovery in 1970. The decline in global consumer confidence far outstripped the decline before the global recession. The world's three largest economies - the US, China and the euro zone - have been slowing sharply. In this case, even a slight blow in the year ahead could tip the global economy into recession.

Based on in-depth insights into past global recessions, the report analyzes the recent evolution of economic activity and forecasts possible scenarios for 2022-24. The current slowdown typically requires countercyclical policies to support economic activity. However, the threat of inflation and limited fiscal space have prompted policymakers in many countries to withdraw policy support amid a sharp global slowdown.

The experience of the 1970s, the policy response to the global recession of 1975, the period of stagflation that followed, and the global recession of 1982, all illustrate the risks of perpetuating high inflation in the face of weak growth. The global recession of 1982 coincided with the second-lowest growth rate in developing economies in the past 50 years after 2020. The recession triggered more than 40 debt crises and brought many developing economies to a standstill over the next decade.

“Recent moves to tighten monetary and fiscal policy may help reduce inflation,” said Ayhan Goss, acting vice president for equitable growth, finance and institutions at the World Bank. There will be additive effects in tightening financial conditions and exacerbating the decline in global growth. Policymakers in emerging market and developing economies need to prepare for potential spillovers from synchronised global policy tightening.”

Central banks should continue to control inflation and be able to achieve their goals without triggering a global recession, the report said. But this requires concerted action from policymakers on all fronts:

Central banks must clearly communicate policy decisions while maintaining independence. Doing so would help rein in inflation expectations and reduce the level of tightening needed. Central banks in advanced economies should consider the cross-border spillover effects of monetary tightening. Central banks of emerging markets and developing economies should strengthen macro-prudential supervision and build foreign exchange reserves.

The fiscal sector needs to carefully plan the exit of fiscal support measures to ensure alignment with monetary policy objectives. The number of countries tightening fiscal policy next year is expected to be the highest since the early 1990s. This could amplify the impact of monetary policy on growth. Policymakers should also develop credible and credible medium-term fiscal plans that provide targeted relief to vulnerable households.

Policymakers in other sectors of the economy need to join the fight against inflation, especially with strong measures to boost global supply.

These include:

Alleviate labor market constraints. Policy measures should be conducive to increasing the labor force participation rate and reducing price pressures. Labour market policies need to be able to promote the reemployment of laid-off workers.

Increase the global supply of goods. Global coordination and cooperation can greatly increase food and energy supplies. For energy commodities, policymakers should promote an accelerated transition to low-carbon energy sources and take steps to reduce energy consumption.

Strengthen global trade networks. Policymakers should cooperate to ease global supply bottlenecks; support a rules-based international economic order to counter threats of protectionism and fragmentation that could further disrupt trade networks.


新知达人, 世界银行报告:全球经济衰退在即? (R0318)

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