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WTO:2021年世界贸易报告

营销老司机 | 25年营销者分享营销的点点滴滴 2021/11/22 13:42
世贸组织WTO 非券商

《2021年世界贸易报告》以“经济韧性与贸易”为主题,讨论了全球贸易体系在危机中脆弱性和韧性的相互关联的原因,贸易如何帮助各国提高抵御经济冲击的能力,如何使贸易体系对未来的变化更加灵活。

报告指出,由疫情引发的健康和经济危机是对世界贸易体系实力的大规模考验,它对全球供应链和国家间贸易关系产生了前所未有的影响。2020年,按名义美元计算的全球商品和服务贸易价值下降9.6%,全球GDP下降3.3%,这是第二次世界大战以来最严重的衰退。

然而,事实证明,贸易体系比危机开始时许多人的预期更具韧性。尽管疫情在最初严重扰乱了国际贸易流动,但供应链迅速适应,货物继续跨境流动,许多经济体逐渐开始复苏。

在大流行期间,全球贸易体系通过促进关键医疗用品、食品和消费品的获取以及支持经济复苏来帮助各国应对疫情。

根据WTO的最新预测,全球经济产出(按市场汇率计算)预计将在2021年增长5.3%。这在一定程度上要归功于商品贸易的强劲复苏,预计这一部分将在2021年增长8%。然而,服务贸易继续低迷。

此次报告传达了三个主要信息:

首先,当今以深度贸易联系为特征的高度互联的全球经济使世界更容易受到冲击,但在冲击时也更具韧性。例如,它使各国能够在危机扰乱既定的供应关系时,通过转换供应商来应对冲击,无论是国内还是国外。参与贸易的企业,特别是出口企业,更有可能在经济衰退中幸存下来,因为它们的平均生产力高于非出口部门的企业,而且它们往往能进入更多样化的市场。

其次,旨在通过解除贸易一体化来提高经济韧性的政策,例如通过回流生产和促进自给自足往往会产生相反的效果,有效地降低经济韧性。从长远来看,这种政策几乎不可避免地使国家经济效率降低,因为它们最终会推高商品和服务的价格,并限制产品、部件和技术的获取。

再次,增强经济韧性需要更多的全球合作。在强有力的国际贸易规则的支持下,在多边或区域层面开展更多的贸易合作,可以支持为避免和减轻风险以及为准备、管理和恢复冲击而部署的各种国内战略。为此,加强和发展世贸组织与国际和区域组织的现有合作至关重要,而促进从风险预防、救灾和公共卫生到气候变化、环境保护和金融稳定等领域的协调、一致和相互支持将进一步支持面对未来危机的韧性。

报告同时指出,尽管贸易和贸易政策可以在建立和支持经济韧性方面发挥重要作用,但其无法克服其他障碍。鉴于风险和冲击的广泛性以及经济弹性的跨领域性质,加强WTO与专门研究经济韧性方面的国际和区域组织之间的合作势在必行。而风险预防、救灾、公共卫生、气候变化、环境保护和金融稳定是促进建立和支持经济韧性的关键。



With the theme of "Economic Resilience and Trade", the "2021 World Trade Report" discusses the interrelated reasons for the fragility and resilience of the global trading system in crises, how trade can help countries improve their ability to withstand economic shocks, and how to make the trading system better. Be more flexible to future changes.

The report pointed out that the health and economic crisis triggered by the epidemic is a large-scale test of the strength of the world trading system. It has had an unprecedented impact on global supply chains and trade relations between countries. In 2020, the value of global trade in goods and services in nominal U.S. dollars will fall by 9.6%, and global GDP will fall by 3.3%. This is the worst recession since World War II.

However, it turns out that the trading system is more resilient than many people expected when the crisis began. Although the epidemic severely disrupted the flow of international trade at the beginning, the supply chain quickly adapted, goods continued to flow across borders, and many economies gradually began to recover.

During a pandemic, the global trading system helps countries respond to the epidemic by facilitating access to key medical supplies, food, and consumer goods, and supporting economic recovery.

According to the latest WTO forecast, global economic output (calculated at market exchange rates) is expected to increase by 5.3% in 2021. This is due in part to the strong recovery of commodity trade, which is expected to grow by 8% in 2021. However, trade in services continues to be sluggish.

The report conveyed three main messages:

First, today's highly interconnected global economy, characterized by deep trade ties, makes the world more vulnerable to shocks, but also more resilient to shocks. For example, it enables countries to respond to shocks by switching suppliers when a crisis disrupts established supply relationships, whether domestic or foreign. Companies involved in trade, especially export companies, are more likely to survive the economic downturn because their average productivity is higher than that of companies in the non-export sector, and they often have access to more diversified markets.

Secondly, policies aimed at improving economic resilience by de-integrating trade, such as returning production and promoting self-sufficiency, often have the opposite effect and effectively reduce economic resilience. In the long run, such policies will almost inevitably reduce the efficiency of the country’s economy, because they will eventually push up the prices of goods and services and limit the availability of products, components, and technologies.

Third, enhancing economic resilience requires more global cooperation. With the support of strong international trade rules, more trade cooperation at the multilateral or regional level can support various domestic strategies deployed to avoid and mitigate risks, and to prepare, manage, and restore shocks. To this end, it is essential to strengthen and develop the existing cooperation between the WTO and international and regional organizations, and to promote coordination, coherence and mutual support in areas ranging from risk prevention, disaster relief and public health to climate change, environmental protection and financial stability will Further support the resilience in the face of future crises.

The report also pointed out that although trade and trade policies can play an important role in building and supporting economic resilience, they cannot overcome other obstacles. In view of the wide range of risks and shocks and the cross-cutting nature of economic resilience, it is imperative to strengthen cooperation between the WTO and international and regional organizations that specialize in economic resilience. Risk prevention, disaster relief, public health, climate change, environmental protection, and financial stability are the keys to building and supporting economic resilience.



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